The University of Hawaii – Manoa is hosting an Emerging Futures Symposium on Friday, November 30th. The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) is livestreaming the event. Futures students from around the world will share twenty minute deep dives focused on topics ranging from “When China Accepts Alternative Futures” to “The Futures of Profanity”. Hawaii’s efforts to develop an innovative conference inspired the APF to host this month’s #futrchat on the future of conferences.

The future of conferences and continued learning

The APF’s ListServ regularly focuses on the future of education for primary to college students. But what about learning for the rest of your life? For those opting to learn outside of academia, conferences offer participants access to content experts and peer-to-peer networking. A transformed conference industry is emerging. For instance, the Pecha Kucha presentation methodology facilitates fast-paced events integrating a multitude of speakers and ideas. In addition, TED has built a business around free, accessible content from engaging thought leaders. A piece in December 2012 issue of Wired magazine notes that TED has shifted from a pure conference company into a media movement.

The future is beginning to infuse the conference industry, but for the majority of participants, conferences do not meet expectations. In 7 Ways Web Conferences Suck and How to Fix Them Robert Hoekman Jr hones in on traditional conference areas that need improvement such as a lack of speaker incentives. More recently, Eric Garland (@ericgarland) posted The Posh, Predictable World of Business Conferences and commented as follows:

“Nothing dramatic goes down at a conference, for the most part. There are no major polemics on stage. No shocking news is unveiled. The keynote does not provoke a response positive or negative in the attendees. The event coordinators hold their breath and hope nothing unplanned happens, and usually, it doesn’t.

Meanwhile, on Twitter, LinkedIn, Google+, or wherever, people are free to unveil outrageous proposals, fight it out on comment streams, make common cause through private messages, learn, absorb, disagree, and generally participate in a vigorous intellectual process. It’s not that online communities are always this way, nor that live conferences are always stultifying — but million-dollar conferences are usually thought of as too precious to involve risk and adventure. They are like Hollywood — big budget and totally predictable”.

In another piece on the future of conferences, George Siemens notes,

I guess probably the best way of saying what will conferences look like in the future, it will be much more you and I creating them ourselves as participants, rather than someone creating them for us and telling us what to do. I think we will be the ones to create that for ourselves.”

Now for the logistical “stuff”…

It’s time to hear from you- futurists and conference goers – how will conferences in the future vary from what’s available in 2012?

Here is how #futrchat works. At the designated time (Thursday 29 November NYC EST 4-5pm, London GMT 9-10pm and Sydney, AEDT Friday 8-9am), login to Twitter and follow the #futrchat hashtag Watch for questions from me @localrat. Those questions should start near the top of the hour and will be labeled as Q1, Q2, and so on. Expect around 5-6 questions. Add your answer as A1, A2, A3, etc.

Please use #futrchat in your all your tweets. Follow Emily Empel @locatrat for questions. Cindy Frewen @urbanverse and Jennifer Jarratt @jenjarratt will keep the conversation moving along.

Feel free to pose questions, add links (if they pertain and no promotional ads), and teach, inform, persuade, enlighten, or provoke with your comments. And always reply or ask specific questions to other people. What did they mean, can they expand, how about such and such? That’s what keeps the conversation moving!

Here are some useful tools for connecting:

•Twitter Search on twitter.com
•Tweetdeck (multiple search columns; set up required)
•Tweetchat (links directly to #futrchat, adds hashtag to your tweets)
•Twubs (links directly to #futrchat, adds hashtag for you)
•Tweetgrid (up to 9 search columns/boxes, easy set up)

First register at twitter. If you use these sites, you register/sign in again usually through your twitter account; if asked, allow them to access your twitter account which allows you to tweet using the tool.

Futrchatters, let’s get weird. Perhaps, we’ll co-opt your ideas into the APF’s next conference on Gaming and Simulation being held in Orlando Florida May 2-4, 2013.

Futurists scan the world for data points, emerging issues, and forecasts. Because of the information available, it’s no wonder the scanning process skews towards negative future outlooks. Oftentimes positive scenarios seem outright Pollyanna, crossing into the realm of implausibility. The futures community is jaded. We analyze transformational forecasts like the Singularity and are quick to point out flaws. Moving forward, how can we explore and leverage these futures to build a better world?

I just finished reading James Lee’s new(ish) book, “Resilience”. James, a futurist and friend, begins his work by addressing the current doom and gloom (those are literally the titles to his introductory chapters). He critically identifies the perilous global outlook we face driven, in part, by collapsing economic systems and extreme weather patterns. Yet, unlike many other forecasts, James actively creates viable futures alternatives by showing how emerging issues such as co-sharing and time banking can impact society. “Resilience” leaves reader’s feeling positive but also realistic about our future.

Similarly, Michael Marantz created a jazzy video titled, “The Future is Ours” (below). Marantz invites viewers to imagine tomorrow as being better than today.

While I don’t believe futurists should provide clients with intrinsically positive or negative scenarios about the future, I love the idea of inspirational futures work. When futurists complete an engagement, their clients should feel empowered to create the future.  A futurist’s job is to inspire as much as it is to inform. As Marantz’s video challenges: futurists, let your [clients] be overwhelmed.

At first glance, our topic areas are seemingly disparate. But think of them as your favorite cocktail combo- an unlikely mixture with intoxicating results. We’re futures mixologists and promise to inform, intrigue, and inspire. Here’s a sneak peak of what’s ahead:

Over the past few months, a variety of data has surfaced regarding a particular trend reversal. Companies are offering traditional communication like “snail mail” as a service. Last summer, Snail My Email introduced a global art project. 10,457 handwritten letters were penned by 234 volunteers from email submissions around the world. Another organization, Paperfinger, provides calligraphy services to enhance traditional love notes. Quarterly Co. sends participants physical objects along with letters from key tastemakers as a monthly “show and tell”.

Futurists would be remiss to discount nostalgia in alternative scenario generation. Yet, as far as I know, future studies does not have a formal method to forecast future areas of nostalgia.

The power of the “snail mail” countertrend isn’t in the data points. Instead, the idea of a resurgence in past conceptions can be used as an extended metaphor for enhancing future scenario sets. Electronic communication can quite possibly replace other methods of future communications. But what is the post-digital age? Why would some groups want to go back to a landscape dominated by “digital” media?

Using current countertrends to construct future ones could be a powerful tool to generate a remarkable scenario set. There are values and traditions future societies will yearn for from the past.

What role should nostalgia play in scenario development? How can futurists systematically generate a scenario set where feelings of nostalgia resonate with a particular audience? Is there an approach where participants could be excited by the future while longing for a past that does not yet exist?

Jim Dator writes about the idea of “aiglatson” or nostalgia spelled backwards. Dator believes it is critical for futurists to revere the future; without being disrespectful to the past. Futures provides society with narratives that bring them into new future worlds. Part of these worlds should include remembering a past that has yet to be created.

Yes, this “run-of the mill” commercial sex event is sponsored by Anheuser-Busch. Bunsen and Colfax tower in heels that resemble Budweiser cans and the truck sells sex toys branded with the red and white Budweiser logo. the snacks and beverages served are more X-rated than G-rated. Last quarter, Budweiser, in conjunction with 21Sextury Films, discreetly created their own pornography flick. The hour-long segment depicted spontaneous ways that beverages could be incorporated into bedroom play. Anheuser-Busch has managed to get where their competitors aren’t- in their customers sex lives*” (Empel, Emily. “(XXX)potential Impact: The Future of the Commercial Sex Industry in 2030.”The Monoa Journal of Fried and Half-fried Ideas (about the Future) 13 (2011)). 

I’m excited to have my forecast on the future of the commercial sex industry published in the newly relaunched “Monoa Journal of Fried and Half-Fried Ideas (about the future)”. This futures based journal out of the University of Hawaii is a student-run, peer-reviewed journal that began in the 90′s. After a brief hiatus, Fried is back and featuring a delectable menu full of quirky futures work.

Check out my article via Fried Journal (Entree XXX on 5 web pages) or download the full .pdf version (XXX)potential Impact: The Future of the Commercial Sex Industry 2030. The next submissions date is February 1st!

*Note: scenario described is a fictional forecast set in the year 2030. These events have not yet occurred.

This week, I attended a Methods Seminar taught by Dr. Wendy Schultz. Though I’ve taken courses on futures methodologies, Wendy’s presentation was awesome in terms of evaluating methods across the board. The seminar exposed students to five schools of futures thought including morphological analysis, archetype narration and causal layered analysis.

Afterwards, I was left with the thought: how can we present the “anti” 2×2 models in a compelling way to organizations? I’ve yet to hear of most clients begging for causal layered analysis. When compared to the 2×2 matrix, futurists agree that other methods offer a more comprehensive narrative of the alternative futures landscape. But we forget our language. We are a cult where the code words are scenario, uncertainty and emerging issues. Our clients speak revenue, profit and predictability. Business and futures need to develop a common language in which advanced foresight becomes an integral and actionable piece of the strategy puzzle.

Of course, I’m sure a good many futurists are secretly packaging their products. My plea: publish a book Peter Schwartz-style and help a futurist out! Steve Jobs proved it’s not about just your offerings but more how you package them. We are currently the boutique diamond designers. We must start being brands. We need to be iconic.

How Kinky is America According to Online Dating Profiles?

In 2009, 40 million Americans, or 40% of US singles, participated in online dating. That same year the industry totaled $1.049 billion, with even larger revenue than the more established pornography sector. Growth is expected to continue at around 10% annually.

Dating sites provide value by hooking users up with their ideal match. Success is measured in “relationships” or how many users leave with “a ring on it”. But can the online and mobile dating sectors continue to profit after users find love?

New relationship management start-ups promise to do just that. Trendcentral recently highlighted three sites that support couples as they build intimacy within their relationships. Kahnoodle designed a dashboard to track improvement areas for couples. TheIceBreak.com suggests questions to promote more meaningful and profound communication between partners. And Tokii, “the first relationship management platform”, uses gaming technologies to help enhance romance.

Sites like OkCupid or Match.com have yet to integrate relationship management within their value proposition. It is very possible that these sites will utilize AI capabilities to build comprehensive long-term relationship programs. Loyal users would be connected to a particular dating site longer than their most serious relationship! As sites begin to shift towards continuous relationship improvement, will our romantic relationships become richer as a result?

Image via Fast Co. Design.

While writing her PhD, one of my colleagues posed key questions via Twitter. By building a network of mentor-like individuals, she got answers instantly and across subject matter experts.  Even superstars like marketing guru Seth Godin are forgoing traditional personalized coaching as a revenue stream. Godin hosted a one-day workshop in his home designed to offer value through shared experience. The world is more complex than ever and it is helpful to build interdisciplinary skills and networks.

Creating a collective mentorship network is, in many ways, more difficult than finding one traditional mentor. It requires not only making an effort to reach out to a variety of people, but it is also only successful if your own identity (web and otherwise) is fluid across many channels. Maybe your potential mentor is prolific on Twitter  and LinkedIn. Perhaps, Facebook or Google+ are more their style. And, maybe they haven’t even gone digital and are active in trade associations, traditional conferences and networking events. The more of these places you are, the more your network has the potential to expand. In a world of decreased individualism and increased collectivism, the outliers get in. Start a discussion. Be the person to bring up the question that 95% of “followers” never thought to ask.

Image via Media Psychology Review.

This morning I watched an intriguing debate on the BBC on “Human Trafficking”. Laura Agustin (known as the “Naked Anthropologist”) voiced dissent on a panel as she urged policy makers not to overgeneralize the condition of migrant workers worldwide. In particular, Agustin stated that not all migrant workers are forced unwillingly into working abroad. Moreover, definitions of smuggling and trafficking must be considered before characterizing all migrants as victims.

Like-minded individuals within the area of trafficking advocate for universal policies regarding migrant workers. Agustin is a  refreshing voice working on the fringe towards a future where a myriad of voices are considered before shaping protocol. Contrary to the celebrities present at this debate like Ashton Kutcher or Mira Sorvino, Agustin does not sermonize the plight of migrants. Instead, she addresses key assumptions, or misperceptions, that social advocates have about migrants worldwide. In many ways, Agustin’s viewpoint could drastically change not only the discussion about migrant work, but also how policy is shaped within this domain in the future.

How can futurists consider a range of human conditions without playing into popular stereotypes of marginalized human populations?

I saw Tabloid a few weeks ago and the documentary’s subject, Joyce McKinney, is still top of mind. Errol Morris’s portrayal of McKinney conveys images of past spinsters like Miss Havisham or Grey Garden’s Little Edie. All three characters are exploited for memories that left them behind. They are anachronistic creatures in a developing world.

In Tabloid, Joyce McKinney, a once beautiful pageant queen, narrates her tale of true love and how it spiraled out of control. This is an obsessive (yet good-natured) kidnapping story. It begins when her lover, Kirk Anderson, leaves for London unexpectedly to pursue Mormon mission work. Joyce, lovestruck and desperate, ropes two friends into a quest to recover the brainwashed Kirk. Forcing him to into a car, Joyce drives Kirk to the countryside. Her side of the story: they had “non-stop sex” for three days. Kirk alleged that Joyce had kidnapped and raped him. The “Mangled Mormon” trial played out in the British tabloids for years after.

Morris’s Joyce McKinney is hauntingly kooky and diabolical. While many other men have desperately loved her, Joyce has resolved to live alone with her six cloned puppies. In Great Expectations, Miss Havisham tells Pip, “I’ll tell you what real love is. It is blind devotion, unquestioning self humiliation, utter submission, trust and belief against yourself and against the world, giving up your whole heart and soul to the smiter–as I did”.

Miss Havisham is the jilted bride existing among her rotting wedding decor. Joyce McKinney is that same abandoned bride, now living out of a truck. It brims with laundry baskets full of tabloids that remind her of lost love. To both women, their former lovers represent the pinnacle of life. Morris has taken Joyce’s sad story and cut together a film that despite being shameful to watch, you cannot overt your eyes from.

So, what does the future hold for the “spinster”? As US women marry later and live longer, society’s view of older, single women will be challenged. Dating sites and community-based living arrangements already provide alternatives to a traditional life of loneliness. These single, older women women will make up a large portion of society with a disposable income. In that case, will the media and subsequently pop culture reinvent the portrayal of the spinster? Is an alternative scenario one of Re-Sexed Spinsters versus Sexless Spinsters?